Melting glaciers, increasingly frequent heat waves, and irregular climate patterns show something is amiss with our planet. Temperature records worldwide have been broken every year since 2000, and increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities significantly drive this trend. By 2022, CO2 emissions were 182 times higher than in 1850, reflecting the profound impact of industrialisation and the ongoing challenges in managing global missions.
The Industrial Revolution marked a turning point in human history, introducing new technologies and energy sources and fuelling unprecedented economic growth. However, this progress came at a significant environmental cost. In 1850, the United Kingdom emerged as the largest emitter of CO2 due to its early and rapid industrialisation. This trend was mirrored in other industrialising nations such as the United States, France, Germany, and Belgium.
After World War II, the global economy experienced a significant boom, leading to a surge in emissions. By 1950, global CO2 emissions had reached 6 billion tonnes annually, driven by industrial expansion, increased energy consumption, and growing reliance on fossil fuels. This period marked the beginning of a rapid and sustained increase in greenhouse gas emissions that continues to this day.
Main Drivers of Emissions
Several key factors have contributed to the rise in CO₂ emissions. Population growth has severely escalated global energy demands and increased consumption of goods and services. Concurrently, rapid economic development, marked by industrialisation and urbanisation, has intensified energy use across sectors. Despite advances in renewable energy, the global economy remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, for energy production, which remains a dominant contributor to CO₂ emissions globally.
Top Emitters: Then and Now
The profiles of CO2 emissions have evolved significantly from the 19th century to the present day. In 1850, the UK was the largest emitter of CO₂. By the late 19th century, the United States had taken the lead, maintaining its position as the top emitter until the mid-20th century. This period saw rapid industrialisation and population growth, especially in the US and Europe. Significant historical events caused temporary reductions in emissions. However, the post-World War II economic boom in the 1950s led to a surge in emissions, with the United States and the countries that now form the European Union responsible for over 70% of global emissions.
From the 1970s onward, China’s economic and industrial reforms caused a dramatic rise in its CO2 emissions, making it the world’s largest emitter by 2022, followed by the USA, India, Russia and Japan. Despite efforts to mitigate emissions, global CO2 output grew, reaching an all-time high of 37 billion tonnes in 2022. Today, the USA and China account for over 40% of global emissions, underscoring their role in shaping the global emissions landscape. The USA also remains the highest in per capita emissions, indicating its high consumption and energy use per person.
China’s rise as the top emitter is particularly noteworthy. In 2022, China emitted 11.4 billion metric tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuels, a stark increase from previous decades. The United States, despite being the second-largest emitter, has reduced its emissions by 11% since 2010 while China’s emissions have increased by more than 30% over the same period. The decrease in US emissions illustrates the impact of transitioning to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency.
However, it is essential to acknowledge China’s substantial efforts and investments in clean energy. Since announcing its target to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, China has significantly ramped up its clean-energy installations. In 2023 alone, China installed an impressive 217 gigawatts (GW) of solar power, twice the current installed solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in the 2020. Wind power also saw robust growth with 76 GW added, which is more than the total installed capacity of Germany in just one year.
Additionally, China permitted 10 new nuclear reactors in both 2022 and 2023, accelerating the pace of construction. These reactors will collectively add approximately 12 GW of generating capacity once completed. The new solar, wind, hydro and nuclear capacity added in 2023 alone is expected to generate around 420 terawatt hours (TW) per year of electricity, equivalent to the total consumption of France.
Despite these efforts, future clean energy development is uncertain. Chinese government aims for clean energy to cover 70% of energy-consumption growth from 2026 to 2030, leaving 30% to fossil fuels, which could lead to continued CO2 emission growth. China’s clean energy advancements are critical for meeting its carbon neutrality goals by 2060.
Disparities in Emissions by Income Levels
High and upper-middle-income countries produce a disproportionate amount of CO2 emissions compared to their population size. Although these countries are home to just under half of the global population, they are responsible for more than 80% of the world’s CO2 emissions.
In contrast, lower-middle and low-income countries comprise most of the global population and contribute less than 20% of global CO2 emissions. The poorest countries are responsible for less than 1% of emissions. In 2021, the average North American generated 11 times more energy-related CO2 than the average African.
The top 1% of emitters worldwide had individual carbon footprints exceeding 50 tonnes of CO2 each in 2021, over 1000 times greater than those in the bottom 1%. On average, a person’s energy-related carbon footprint is around 4.7 tonnes of CO2 annually. These significant differences emphasise vast disparities in income, wealth, lifestyle and consumption patterns.
These top emitters are mostly found in advanced economies, where higher standards of living drive consumption. Meanwhile, the lowest 10% of emitters live mostly in developing nations of Africa and Asia, where limited resources and amenities keep consumption down.
The Main Culprits
CO2 emissions have grown exponentially, surpassing 37.15 billion metric tonnes annually. While the rate of increase has moderated in recent years, emissions have not yet reached their highest point.
China is the world’s largest emitter, releasing 12.38 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually, mainly from coal, which powers almost 58% of its energy. China is also a major oil importer, contributing to its high emissions. The country aims to reduce its dependency on coal by increasing nuclear, renewable, and natural gas energy.
United States: Emitting 5.2 billion metric tonnes of CO2 yearly, the key sources include transportation, electric power, and industry. Despite efforts to move away from coal, the country remains a significant oil producer, and its transportation sector heavily relies on petroleum. Industrial activities also contribute significantly to emissions.
India: With 2.86 billion tonnes of annual CO2 emissions, India ranks third. Coal is the primary energy source, followed by petroleum. Although natural gas accounts for only 6 % of energy consumption, India plans to increase this to 15% by 2030 to combat air pollution.
Russia: Emitting 2.17 billion metric tonnes of CO2, Russia is the fourth largest emitter. Natural gas is the dominant energy source, supplemented by coal, particularly in the chemical and material industries. Russia’s gas exports to Europe have declined due to geopolitical tensions, impacting its overall emissions.
Japan: Japan emitted 1.06 billion metric tonnes of CO2, Post-Fukushima, Japan’s energy mix shifted, with oil accounting for 38%, coal 25%, and nuclear energy 23% of consumption. Japan aims to boost nuclear energy production by 2030 to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon fuels.
Cumulative Emissions
Although China is the world’s largest carbon polluter, the US has historically released more CO₂. Since the 1750s, the US has emitted over 400 billion metric tonnes of CO₂, whereas China’s emissions have largely occurred in the past two decades. The US and China have accounted for roughly 40% of cumulative CO₂ emissions since the Industrial Revolution. The Great Depression and the end of World War II led to short-term reductions in emissions, but these were quickly followed by periods of rapid growth. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decrease in global emissions in 2020, but levels quickly rebounded in 2021, surpassing 2019 emissions.
While global per capita emissions have stabilised since 2011, total emissions continue to grow. This suggests a shift towards less carbon-intensive development in some regions but stresses the need for further reductions in overall emissions to mitigate climate change impacts. Overall, the historical and contemporary analysis of CO2 emissions reveals the intricate link between industrial growth, energy consumption and environmental impacts. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort towards sustainable development and rapid transitioning to cleaner energy sources.
Earth’s Average Global Temperature
Since the Industrial Revolution, Earth’s average global temperature has risen by at least 1.1° C. Most of this warming occurred since 1975, accelerating from approximately 0.15° C to 0.20° C per decade. Regional variations in warming exist, with land areas heating faster than oceans due to thermal inertia. Despite fluctuations, the overall trend suggests significant warming linked to increased greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere longer than cooling aerosol pollutants. Understanding these temperature changes is crucial, as even slight global shifts can profoundly impact climate and weather patterns globally, highlighting the ongoing need for climate monitoring and mitigation efforts.
The evolving landscape of CO2 emissions shows the critical need for global cooperation and proactive measures to combat climate change. From historical industrialisation to modern economic development, the trajectory of CO2 emissions spotlighted the urgent need for sustainable practices and cleaner energy alternatives. As nations grapple with dual challenges of economic growth and environmental preservation, fostering innovation, policy reforms, and international collaboration is necessary to ensure a resilient and sustainable future for the planet.
Sources:
CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
China’s manufacturing pushed emissions sky high. What’s next?
Annual carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide from 1940 to 2023(in billion metric tons)
The History of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
How much have temperatures risen in countries across the world?
World of Change: Global Temperatures (nasa.gov)
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Country 2024 (worldpopulationreview.com)
CO₂ emissions: How much CO₂ does the world emit? Which countries emit the most?